A look at how well the federal parties have done in their efforts to earn votes

(By Alison Bailey) The day is finally here!  After 11 long weeks, polling stations are open. Not long after the sun goes down, we’ll know who our next prime minister is.  Early surveys had the NDP looking good. Then it was the Conservatives. Now, the Liberals are leading the polling pack.

How well have each of the parties done in trying to earn your vote?

Political Scientist Scott Matthews with Memorial University in St. John’s, Newfoundland says the big surprise has been Justin Trudeau and the Liberals, pointing out there was a lot of uncertainty around Trudeau’s abilities when the campaign began.

“I don’t know that he was masterful in debates or masterful as a campaigner, but he was really solid the whole time — not a lot of blunders.”

Matthews adds the low expectations set for Trudeau have meant it hasn’t been difficult for the Liberal leader to look like he’s performed well.

He says the Conservatives have likely kept their voter base, but doubts they’ve gained much new support.

“They probably needed to shore up the people who were not really strong Tories at the beginning of the campaign. I think perhaps they didn’t spend enough time worrying about that. I think the Conservative base… is very strong. I don’t think Stephen Harper gave them much reason to look elsewhere.

“It doesn’t seem to me that they were trying to build much beyond their existing base of voters. I don’t think they were reaching out to a broader cross-section of Canadians, except perhaps in the messages around the economy. But in the end, it didn’t play very well because of the at least kind of mixed situation in the Canadian economy. It’s not necessarily a convincing message for everyone that the Tories have done this fine job with the economy and should be trusted for the future.”

Matthews says the NDP hasn’t made too many blunders.

“A lot of New Democratic partisans seem to be of the same view that they played it kind of safe — maybe too safe, maybe too centrist. I’m not sure about all that. Certainly, I’m not sure that a centrist appeal was a bad move for them; I think it was probably a good move. What they needed to do to really come out on top, I think, was to establish themselves as the clear alternative. I think that, at the start of the campaign, looked very good for them.

“I think for a lot of people, it seemed like they were going to be the alternative. Then the campaign happened — or certain things in the campaign happened. The Syrian refugee crisis combined with the niqab and how this all played out for the Conservatives and in Quebec, it really just sort of changed the strategic situation in a way that kind of got away from the New Democrats. If the NDP is not the leading party in seats or votes tonight, which it seems it probably won’t be — we can’t be sure — but if it isn’t, I don’t think it’s because they did anything wrong, necessarily; I think events kind of got away from them.”

Matthews adds some of the NDP’s new supporters in 2011 — like those in Quebec — may be easily swayed to another party.