Is a push for a strategic vote against Harper working?

(Submitted by Simon Druker and Martin MacMahon) Strategic voting is working, at least according to a cross-Canada group taking aim at the Harper Conservatives.

Leadnow counts 460,000 people among its ranks from coast-to-coast.

The group goes door-to-door, telling people which candidate in their riding has the best chance of defeating a Conservative nominee.

“People across Canada are using the website to fundraise for polling in key swing ridings to give voters the best information so they can vote together for change,” says Amara Possian, the group’s campaign manager.

“We’re excited about the response we’re seeing from people across the country, and we’re working harder than ever to encourage others to join us.”

Leadnow has reached over 60,000 people who have pledged to strategically vote together, while more than 1,200 Canadians have signed up to canvass their neighbours or make phone calls from home into Conservative swing ridings.

But will that translate to votes?

Dr. David Moscrop, a political scientist with UBC, says local issues make it hard to get accurate information on who stands the best chance in a given riding.

“It’s hard to know what national trend is affecting a riding and what peculiarity of a riding is affecting the race. It’s harder to differentiate macro trends from micro ones. That said, if on October 19th, all the ridings that Leadnow have targeted went in the direction they were trying to push them, then we might have some data that suggests that it did work,” he explains.

While he says he’ll wait until election night to reserve judgment because “from an academic standpoint, that’s the responsible thing to do,” Moscrop says the group is doing things the right way.

“I suspect that they might end up having an impact. They’re using sophisticated techniques, they have people on the ground, they have a coherent strategy, they have a clear goal. So, they might be able to pull it off.”